Friday, January 30, 2009
Luis Gonzalez
Just a quick post to vent a little bit. If we sign Luis Gonzalez for next to nothing to be a role player/pinch hitter/veteran to help our young outfielders, then I will be happy. However if we sign him to be our everyday leftfielder or even part of a two person or three person platoon in lf, I will be a whole let less excited about the Reds this year. I don't know why some of the talking heads on 700 or 1530 have said anything positive about this possibility. Let's go back to talking about trading Homer Bailey for Xavier Nady. Here's to hoping the Reds are playing for today, and aren't trying to emulate the past decade.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Red's Starting Rotation
While the rest of Cincinnati is looking towards New York hoping the ship us one of their extra Right Handed Outfielders , I thought I would take a look at what our starting rotation might look like and produce this coming year.
Red's Starting Rotation*
*from MLB.COM
Aaron Harang
age 30
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Cin 36 35 6 2 234.1 242 109 98 28 56 216 16 11 3.76
2007 Cin 34 34 2 1 231.2 213 100 96 28 52 218 16 6 3.73
2008 Cin 30 29 1 1 184.1 205 104 98 35 50 153 6 17 4.79
The biggest question is health. Will we forever have the 2008 Harang, or does he return to form? I think we can expect 15 wins and 200+ innings. If we don't get that, then its going to be a LONG year.
Edinson Volquez
age 25
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Tex 8 8 0 0 33.1 52 28 27 7 17 15 1 6 7.29
2007 Tex 6 6 0 0 34.0 34 18 17 4 15 29 2 1 4.50
2008 Cin 33 32 0 0 196 167 82 70 14 93 206 17 6 3.21
Edinson is at a great age to develop and mature. He could potentially have a career year this year or next. I think that he will come down a little bit from last year judging from his second half. Right around 200 innings and 15 wins. I like the possibility that he develops into a perennial all-star.
Bronson Arroyo
age 31
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Cin 35 35 3 1 240.2 222 98 88 31 64 184 14 11 3.29
2007 Cin 34 34 1 0 210.2 232 109 99 28 63 156 9 15 4.23
2008 Cin 34 34 1 0 200.0 219 116 106 29 68 163 15 11 4.77
It's crazy to think that Bronson is our oldest starter. Frankly his 15 wins don't mean anything to me from last year. He will be around 200 innings this year at best and if he plays for us this year (fingers crossed for Nady or Swisher), he will finish closer to 11-15 than 15-11.
Johnny Cueto
age 22
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2008 Cin 31 31 0 0 174.0 178 101 93 29 68 158 9 14 4.81
Cueto still needs a year or two of polish. I have seen him pitch a couple of times. His stuff is great, and I love his fire, but he hasn't mastered that second time through the line up. Once he develops fully into his potential I think he is clearly a 15 game winning K machine. I say this year he wins 12 games and gives us 200 innings. Even if he is a little ahead of schedule, he makes this team a LOT better.
Micah Owings/Ramon Ramirez/Homer Bailey/Daryl Thompson
age26/26/22/23
If starting pitchers 1-4 perform to expectations this 5th spot can fall flat and it won't kill the bullpen or the team. Owings and Ramirez are both at an age to hit their stride and post some nice numbers. I would love to have Owings in the line up too. Hopefully the Reds finish the year WITHOUT Homer Bailey, and the 5th spot in the starting rotation has a record of 10-10 and has pitched 150+ innings.
Red's Starting Rotation*
*from MLB.COM
Aaron Harang
age 30
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Cin 36 35 6 2 234.1 242 109 98 28 56 216 16 11 3.76
2007 Cin 34 34 2 1 231.2 213 100 96 28 52 218 16 6 3.73
2008 Cin 30 29 1 1 184.1 205 104 98 35 50 153 6 17 4.79
The biggest question is health. Will we forever have the 2008 Harang, or does he return to form? I think we can expect 15 wins and 200+ innings. If we don't get that, then its going to be a LONG year.
Edinson Volquez
age 25
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Tex 8 8 0 0 33.1 52 28 27 7 17 15 1 6 7.29
2007 Tex 6 6 0 0 34.0 34 18 17 4 15 29 2 1 4.50
2008 Cin 33 32 0 0 196 167 82 70 14 93 206 17 6 3.21
Edinson is at a great age to develop and mature. He could potentially have a career year this year or next. I think that he will come down a little bit from last year judging from his second half. Right around 200 innings and 15 wins. I like the possibility that he develops into a perennial all-star.
Bronson Arroyo
age 31
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Cin 35 35 3 1 240.2 222 98 88 31 64 184 14 11 3.29
2007 Cin 34 34 1 0 210.2 232 109 99 28 63 156 9 15 4.23
2008 Cin 34 34 1 0 200.0 219 116 106 29 68 163 15 11 4.77
It's crazy to think that Bronson is our oldest starter. Frankly his 15 wins don't mean anything to me from last year. He will be around 200 innings this year at best and if he plays for us this year (fingers crossed for Nady or Swisher), he will finish closer to 11-15 than 15-11.
Johnny Cueto
age 22
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2008 Cin 31 31 0 0 174.0 178 101 93 29 68 158 9 14 4.81
Cueto still needs a year or two of polish. I have seen him pitch a couple of times. His stuff is great, and I love his fire, but he hasn't mastered that second time through the line up. Once he develops fully into his potential I think he is clearly a 15 game winning K machine. I say this year he wins 12 games and gives us 200 innings. Even if he is a little ahead of schedule, he makes this team a LOT better.
Micah Owings/Ramon Ramirez/Homer Bailey/Daryl Thompson
age26/26/22/23
If starting pitchers 1-4 perform to expectations this 5th spot can fall flat and it won't kill the bullpen or the team. Owings and Ramirez are both at an age to hit their stride and post some nice numbers. I would love to have Owings in the line up too. Hopefully the Reds finish the year WITHOUT Homer Bailey, and the 5th spot in the starting rotation has a record of 10-10 and has pitched 150+ innings.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Hairston Signs with the Reds
MLBTRADERUMORS.COM as well as Cincinnati.com are reporting that Jerry Hairston Jr. has signed a one year contract for 2 million, that could turn into 4 million depending on his performance. Hairston's versatility certainly helps the Reds. Especially if he stays healthy. He will likely start at Shortstop since Alex Gonzalez won't be ready to play this year.
It's likely that Pat Burrell signing for less than expected with Tampa Bay led Hairston to re-sign with the Reds. The free agent market, just isn't bringing big money contracts outside the Yankees this year. This move frees the Reds up to work on other possible deals. It gives the lineup added strength and versatility, and also adds depth to the bench (as either Keppinger, Encarnacion, or Hairston will be coming of the bench on any given day). Now all the Red's need to do is trade Homer Bailey for Xavier Nady. Walt... We're waiting...
It's likely that Pat Burrell signing for less than expected with Tampa Bay led Hairston to re-sign with the Reds. The free agent market, just isn't bringing big money contracts outside the Yankees this year. This move frees the Reds up to work on other possible deals. It gives the lineup added strength and versatility, and also adds depth to the bench (as either Keppinger, Encarnacion, or Hairston will be coming of the bench on any given day). Now all the Red's need to do is trade Homer Bailey for Xavier Nady. Walt... We're waiting...
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Maturity Takes a Knee
Last night's Fiesta Bowl was a great game. By far the best bowl game this year. Ohio State came out and played better than anybody thought they would. Texas played well too, but truly got out played by the Buckeyes. You could not have asked for more excitement in Arizona. Even though my team didn't win, I would take an action packed match like that anyday.
As a Buckeye fan I only had 2 issues with the way the game went. The first was Tressel's decision to run the ball up the gut on 3rd and 13 at Texas' 40-something yardline. I don't feel like that had any hope for converting a first down, and the momentum had been in our favor going into that play.
The other issue I had was actually connected to the Buckeyes putting points on the board. I think we scored too fast, and didn't have a good perspective on the way we wanted the game to play out. We were in easy field goal range with 2:00 left on the clock. We could have ran the clock down to around the 1:00 minute mark or less before either scoring a touchdown or a field goal. By scoring quick they put the ball back into the hands of arguable the nations best offense. Even if we only kicked a field goal, the Longhorns would have had to put together a drive and kick a field goal to win (something they hadn't done much of this year). Maybe this was the Buckeyes' game plan, and Boom Herron just broke free, but I think if they had done it, the outcome would have been different.
Either way, it was still a great game. Congrats to Colt McCoy on a great end to a great season. Ohio State Seniors went out with their heads up too. They played a great game, and just ran out of time. What a game.
As a Buckeye fan I only had 2 issues with the way the game went. The first was Tressel's decision to run the ball up the gut on 3rd and 13 at Texas' 40-something yardline. I don't feel like that had any hope for converting a first down, and the momentum had been in our favor going into that play.
The other issue I had was actually connected to the Buckeyes putting points on the board. I think we scored too fast, and didn't have a good perspective on the way we wanted the game to play out. We were in easy field goal range with 2:00 left on the clock. We could have ran the clock down to around the 1:00 minute mark or less before either scoring a touchdown or a field goal. By scoring quick they put the ball back into the hands of arguable the nations best offense. Even if we only kicked a field goal, the Longhorns would have had to put together a drive and kick a field goal to win (something they hadn't done much of this year). Maybe this was the Buckeyes' game plan, and Boom Herron just broke free, but I think if they had done it, the outcome would have been different.
Either way, it was still a great game. Congrats to Colt McCoy on a great end to a great season. Ohio State Seniors went out with their heads up too. They played a great game, and just ran out of time. What a game.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Big Ten Bowl Record 1-5
Everyone knows the Big Ten is down this year. Any year that has Rich Rodriguez riding the Wolverines down into the ground, is going to be a down year for the conference. Still, I don't think that many people thought that the Big Ten would be 1-5 in bowl games with only OSU in the Fiesta Bowl left. Who is to blame for the atrocious bowl showing this year? I don't think you can blame the teams. The people to blame are Ohio State football fans.
Let's take a walk down What Should Have Been Lane. The Buckeyes have the lowest ranking of any at large team in a BCS game this year (10). They wouldn't have had a chance to get in if the PAC-10 hadn't righted itself. OSU would have been headed to the Capital One Bowl, instead of the Fiesta Bowl. Texas Tech had a legitimate gripe for not getting a BCS game (ranked 7), but only 2 teams per conference can get a BCS Bid (Texas, Oklahoma). Boise State was also ahead of OSU, but their weak schedule and Utah's outstanding season kept them from getting a bid. So why did OSU get a BCS game? Their fans. Plan and simple, Ohio State travels well, and Arizona is their home away from home. No other fan base (from those left to pick from) would have traveled as well and brought as much revenue as Buckeye Fans. In a season of economic downturn, the Fiesta Bowl Committee went with the sure thing; Buckeye fans spend money. This is where the Big Ten's road to 1-5 in Bowl Games begins, not recruiting, coaching, or anywhere else.
Here are what the Bowl Projections would have been if Ohio State had played in the Capital One Bowl instead of the Fiesta Bowl:
Penn State vs USC
Ok this one wouldn't have changed at all Big Ten 0-1
Ohio State vs Georgia
Nothing against the Bulldogs, but the Buckeyes win this one easily Big Ten 1-1
Michigan State vs. South Carolina
MSU rolls the Gamecocks just like Iowa did. Big 10 2-1
Iowa vs. Missouri
This would be a good game, but Iowa's defense and run game prevails. Big Ten 3-1
Northwestern vs Kansas
Northwestern almost beat Missouri, so they would likely beat Kansas as well. Big Ten 4-1
Minnesota vs Florida State
Minnesota is just awful. Big 10 4-2
Wisconsin vs ???
Wisconsin shouldn't even be in a bowl this year. So whoever they played, they would likely lose. This team just lost its Spirit. Big Ten 4-2 or 4-3
So the Ohio State fans are playing a big part in the Big 10 getting no respect. It's not because of the things they are saying, it's because of the money they are willing to spend. 4 and 2 or 4 and 3 in bowl games for a conference isn't amazing, but it is respectable, and it would also put them around the same winning percentage this bowl season as the rest of the major conferences. If only bowl match-ups were decided by the teams on the field and not the fans in the stands
Let's take a walk down What Should Have Been Lane. The Buckeyes have the lowest ranking of any at large team in a BCS game this year (10). They wouldn't have had a chance to get in if the PAC-10 hadn't righted itself. OSU would have been headed to the Capital One Bowl, instead of the Fiesta Bowl. Texas Tech had a legitimate gripe for not getting a BCS game (ranked 7), but only 2 teams per conference can get a BCS Bid (Texas, Oklahoma). Boise State was also ahead of OSU, but their weak schedule and Utah's outstanding season kept them from getting a bid. So why did OSU get a BCS game? Their fans. Plan and simple, Ohio State travels well, and Arizona is their home away from home. No other fan base (from those left to pick from) would have traveled as well and brought as much revenue as Buckeye Fans. In a season of economic downturn, the Fiesta Bowl Committee went with the sure thing; Buckeye fans spend money. This is where the Big Ten's road to 1-5 in Bowl Games begins, not recruiting, coaching, or anywhere else.
Here are what the Bowl Projections would have been if Ohio State had played in the Capital One Bowl instead of the Fiesta Bowl:
Penn State vs USC
Ok this one wouldn't have changed at all Big Ten 0-1
Ohio State vs Georgia
Nothing against the Bulldogs, but the Buckeyes win this one easily Big Ten 1-1
Michigan State vs. South Carolina
MSU rolls the Gamecocks just like Iowa did. Big 10 2-1
Iowa vs. Missouri
This would be a good game, but Iowa's defense and run game prevails. Big Ten 3-1
Northwestern vs Kansas
Northwestern almost beat Missouri, so they would likely beat Kansas as well. Big Ten 4-1
Minnesota vs Florida State
Minnesota is just awful. Big 10 4-2
Wisconsin vs ???
Wisconsin shouldn't even be in a bowl this year. So whoever they played, they would likely lose. This team just lost its Spirit. Big Ten 4-2 or 4-3
So the Ohio State fans are playing a big part in the Big 10 getting no respect. It's not because of the things they are saying, it's because of the money they are willing to spend. 4 and 2 or 4 and 3 in bowl games for a conference isn't amazing, but it is respectable, and it would also put them around the same winning percentage this bowl season as the rest of the major conferences. If only bowl match-ups were decided by the teams on the field and not the fans in the stands
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