The season is nearly half over and here are the Reds right at the .500 mark. The team has surprised several people by their endurance. The have dealt with injuries to 5 of their starting fielders (including Taveras' Hamstring), as well as one of their starting pitchers. The Reds 40-40 record would not have been nearly as big of a surprise if the Reds hadn't dealt with so many injuries. The All-Star break is nearly upon us. The Reds will play a 7 games against the Phillies and Mets and then take some time to watch MLB's best square off. Encarnacion is back, Gonzalez is rehabing, and Volquez has started throwing again. I'm not going to venture to say where I think the Reds will be in an additional 80 games, but lets see where they might be right after the Trade Deadline July, 31st.
On July 31st the Reds will finish the month off by beating the Colorado Rockies. That however will only be their 9th win in the past 22 games. The Reds have battled in nearly all the games they have played in this year (not counting the games where Arroyo leaves his A game in the locker room). However they are entering a minefield stretch of their schedule that threatens to break this young teams hopes. They will face such adversity from contenders like the Phillies and the Mets, and have to endure a West Coast swing to play the seemingly unstoppable Dodgers. During that same stretch of games they will also have to battle against division rivals Brewers and Cubs. Its just hard for me to see them pulling out any more than 9 out of the next 22. So if the Reds make it to July 31st and have a record of 49-53 will there be any hope of recovery. Will Jockety have made any moves? Let me know your thoughts...
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Monday, May 4, 2009
Red's Starting Rotation So Far
Aaron Harang
He will definitely not have the poor numbers he put up last year. Although his 2-3 record does not reflect it, Harang has his command back. His ERA is just over 3, and has only walked 6 in 5 starts.
Edinson Volquez
I wouldn't have guessed taht Edinson would be 3-2 if his era was over 4.00. I also would have thought that he hadn't been pitching well if you told me that he already had 21 walks in 28 innings. Still he has already combined with Cordero for a one hitter this year. I think he is zeroing in on where he needs to be this year to be an elite pitcher. If he is going to win games he can't go deep into pitch counts, and can't be afraid of pitching to contact.
Bronson Arroyo
First I thought he would get traded before the season. Then I thought they were putting a spin job together to get him on the DL to make room for Homer Bailey. Turns out the his Carpals aren't affecting his curveballs. I honestly thought that the only thing Bronson would do for us this year was eat innings. His ERA is an ugly 4.91 but that is due to getting rocked against Atlantalast week. Besides that one start he has been very effective. I think he can either still be great trade bait for us this year, or an above average innings eater.
Johnny Cueto
Lights out would probably be the best way to describe Johnny so far. He realistically could have been 5-0 at this point instead of 2-1. He is getting ahead of hitters and has stopped trying to strike everyone out this year.
Micah Owings
He has contributed more with his bat than with his arm so far. I don't think he will be bad for us this year, but I definitely don't think he is feeling comfortable on the mound yet. He needs to find his pace on the mound, and the Reds will definitely need at least 4 runs on days he pitches to bring home a win.
In the Minors:
Matt Maloney has it working in Louisville. Bailey has a good strikeout rate, and a good WHIP, but Home Runs with people on base is killing him. I am glad that he is not pitching incredible well though. It gives him more time to get regular starts, and keeps Owings from looking over his shoulder too much.
I think this rotation has three 15 game winners on it. If Bronson finds a groove it could even be 4. If Micah can just get to 10, thats a nice 65-70 wins from our starting pitching. Are you sure we are in Cincy?
He will definitely not have the poor numbers he put up last year. Although his 2-3 record does not reflect it, Harang has his command back. His ERA is just over 3, and has only walked 6 in 5 starts.
Edinson Volquez
I wouldn't have guessed taht Edinson would be 3-2 if his era was over 4.00. I also would have thought that he hadn't been pitching well if you told me that he already had 21 walks in 28 innings. Still he has already combined with Cordero for a one hitter this year. I think he is zeroing in on where he needs to be this year to be an elite pitcher. If he is going to win games he can't go deep into pitch counts, and can't be afraid of pitching to contact.
Bronson Arroyo
First I thought he would get traded before the season. Then I thought they were putting a spin job together to get him on the DL to make room for Homer Bailey. Turns out the his Carpals aren't affecting his curveballs. I honestly thought that the only thing Bronson would do for us this year was eat innings. His ERA is an ugly 4.91 but that is due to getting rocked against Atlantalast week. Besides that one start he has been very effective. I think he can either still be great trade bait for us this year, or an above average innings eater.
Johnny Cueto
Lights out would probably be the best way to describe Johnny so far. He realistically could have been 5-0 at this point instead of 2-1. He is getting ahead of hitters and has stopped trying to strike everyone out this year.
Micah Owings
He has contributed more with his bat than with his arm so far. I don't think he will be bad for us this year, but I definitely don't think he is feeling comfortable on the mound yet. He needs to find his pace on the mound, and the Reds will definitely need at least 4 runs on days he pitches to bring home a win.
In the Minors:
Matt Maloney has it working in Louisville. Bailey has a good strikeout rate, and a good WHIP, but Home Runs with people on base is killing him. I am glad that he is not pitching incredible well though. It gives him more time to get regular starts, and keeps Owings from looking over his shoulder too much.
I think this rotation has three 15 game winners on it. If Bronson finds a groove it could even be 4. If Micah can just get to 10, thats a nice 65-70 wins from our starting pitching. Are you sure we are in Cincy?
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Spring Training
The thing I am loving the most about Spring Training starting up, is sports radio is finally starting to talk about the Reds every day. You don't have to wait for the right 30 minute segment in a certain week to hear them talk about the free agent market. Here is my take on Spring Training so far:
-Wily Taveras is hungry. He may be crazy saying that he will steal 100 bases this year, but hearing the guy say that he is willing to bunt every game and try to hit more ground balls really tells me something. He is ready to play his role on the team, and he even sounds zealous about that role.
-Ramon Hernandez is going to be a good thing. I read an article a couple of days ago that talked about all the work that he was going to have to do before the World Baseball Classic. He has been catching a lot of pitchers trying to get acclimated. The article said he was joking around with the pitching staff, and really trying to figure out the pitching personalities. It doesn't sound like the bad blood has carried over from Baltimore. I'm guessing he will give us a lot more numbers all around than Ryan Freel would have been able to put up for us too.
- If you are a starting pitcher or a left fielder Ed Smith Stadium might have a locker for you. Due to our lingering need for a right handed power hitter in left field we have surrounded ourselves with mediocre major league outfielders and just as many minor league prospects. The World Baseball Classic will be taking Volquez and Cueto out on loan for most of the Spring, so nealry every single starting pitcher in the Reds' farm system is going to give it a go for that 5th rotation spot.
-Wily Taveras is hungry. He may be crazy saying that he will steal 100 bases this year, but hearing the guy say that he is willing to bunt every game and try to hit more ground balls really tells me something. He is ready to play his role on the team, and he even sounds zealous about that role.
-Ramon Hernandez is going to be a good thing. I read an article a couple of days ago that talked about all the work that he was going to have to do before the World Baseball Classic. He has been catching a lot of pitchers trying to get acclimated. The article said he was joking around with the pitching staff, and really trying to figure out the pitching personalities. It doesn't sound like the bad blood has carried over from Baltimore. I'm guessing he will give us a lot more numbers all around than Ryan Freel would have been able to put up for us too.
- If you are a starting pitcher or a left fielder Ed Smith Stadium might have a locker for you. Due to our lingering need for a right handed power hitter in left field we have surrounded ourselves with mediocre major league outfielders and just as many minor league prospects. The World Baseball Classic will be taking Volquez and Cueto out on loan for most of the Spring, so nealry every single starting pitcher in the Reds' farm system is going to give it a go for that 5th rotation spot.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Luis Gonzalez
Just a quick post to vent a little bit. If we sign Luis Gonzalez for next to nothing to be a role player/pinch hitter/veteran to help our young outfielders, then I will be happy. However if we sign him to be our everyday leftfielder or even part of a two person or three person platoon in lf, I will be a whole let less excited about the Reds this year. I don't know why some of the talking heads on 700 or 1530 have said anything positive about this possibility. Let's go back to talking about trading Homer Bailey for Xavier Nady. Here's to hoping the Reds are playing for today, and aren't trying to emulate the past decade.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Red's Starting Rotation
While the rest of Cincinnati is looking towards New York hoping the ship us one of their extra Right Handed Outfielders , I thought I would take a look at what our starting rotation might look like and produce this coming year.
Red's Starting Rotation*
*from MLB.COM
Aaron Harang
age 30
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Cin 36 35 6 2 234.1 242 109 98 28 56 216 16 11 3.76
2007 Cin 34 34 2 1 231.2 213 100 96 28 52 218 16 6 3.73
2008 Cin 30 29 1 1 184.1 205 104 98 35 50 153 6 17 4.79
The biggest question is health. Will we forever have the 2008 Harang, or does he return to form? I think we can expect 15 wins and 200+ innings. If we don't get that, then its going to be a LONG year.
Edinson Volquez
age 25
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Tex 8 8 0 0 33.1 52 28 27 7 17 15 1 6 7.29
2007 Tex 6 6 0 0 34.0 34 18 17 4 15 29 2 1 4.50
2008 Cin 33 32 0 0 196 167 82 70 14 93 206 17 6 3.21
Edinson is at a great age to develop and mature. He could potentially have a career year this year or next. I think that he will come down a little bit from last year judging from his second half. Right around 200 innings and 15 wins. I like the possibility that he develops into a perennial all-star.
Bronson Arroyo
age 31
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Cin 35 35 3 1 240.2 222 98 88 31 64 184 14 11 3.29
2007 Cin 34 34 1 0 210.2 232 109 99 28 63 156 9 15 4.23
2008 Cin 34 34 1 0 200.0 219 116 106 29 68 163 15 11 4.77
It's crazy to think that Bronson is our oldest starter. Frankly his 15 wins don't mean anything to me from last year. He will be around 200 innings this year at best and if he plays for us this year (fingers crossed for Nady or Swisher), he will finish closer to 11-15 than 15-11.
Johnny Cueto
age 22
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2008 Cin 31 31 0 0 174.0 178 101 93 29 68 158 9 14 4.81
Cueto still needs a year or two of polish. I have seen him pitch a couple of times. His stuff is great, and I love his fire, but he hasn't mastered that second time through the line up. Once he develops fully into his potential I think he is clearly a 15 game winning K machine. I say this year he wins 12 games and gives us 200 innings. Even if he is a little ahead of schedule, he makes this team a LOT better.
Micah Owings/Ramon Ramirez/Homer Bailey/Daryl Thompson
age26/26/22/23
If starting pitchers 1-4 perform to expectations this 5th spot can fall flat and it won't kill the bullpen or the team. Owings and Ramirez are both at an age to hit their stride and post some nice numbers. I would love to have Owings in the line up too. Hopefully the Reds finish the year WITHOUT Homer Bailey, and the 5th spot in the starting rotation has a record of 10-10 and has pitched 150+ innings.
Red's Starting Rotation*
*from MLB.COM
Aaron Harang
age 30
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Cin 36 35 6 2 234.1 242 109 98 28 56 216 16 11 3.76
2007 Cin 34 34 2 1 231.2 213 100 96 28 52 218 16 6 3.73
2008 Cin 30 29 1 1 184.1 205 104 98 35 50 153 6 17 4.79
The biggest question is health. Will we forever have the 2008 Harang, or does he return to form? I think we can expect 15 wins and 200+ innings. If we don't get that, then its going to be a LONG year.
Edinson Volquez
age 25
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Tex 8 8 0 0 33.1 52 28 27 7 17 15 1 6 7.29
2007 Tex 6 6 0 0 34.0 34 18 17 4 15 29 2 1 4.50
2008 Cin 33 32 0 0 196 167 82 70 14 93 206 17 6 3.21
Edinson is at a great age to develop and mature. He could potentially have a career year this year or next. I think that he will come down a little bit from last year judging from his second half. Right around 200 innings and 15 wins. I like the possibility that he develops into a perennial all-star.
Bronson Arroyo
age 31
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2006 Cin 35 35 3 1 240.2 222 98 88 31 64 184 14 11 3.29
2007 Cin 34 34 1 0 210.2 232 109 99 28 63 156 9 15 4.23
2008 Cin 34 34 1 0 200.0 219 116 106 29 68 163 15 11 4.77
It's crazy to think that Bronson is our oldest starter. Frankly his 15 wins don't mean anything to me from last year. He will be around 200 innings this year at best and if he plays for us this year (fingers crossed for Nady or Swisher), he will finish closer to 11-15 than 15-11.
Johnny Cueto
age 22
**********G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA
2008 Cin 31 31 0 0 174.0 178 101 93 29 68 158 9 14 4.81
Cueto still needs a year or two of polish. I have seen him pitch a couple of times. His stuff is great, and I love his fire, but he hasn't mastered that second time through the line up. Once he develops fully into his potential I think he is clearly a 15 game winning K machine. I say this year he wins 12 games and gives us 200 innings. Even if he is a little ahead of schedule, he makes this team a LOT better.
Micah Owings/Ramon Ramirez/Homer Bailey/Daryl Thompson
age26/26/22/23
If starting pitchers 1-4 perform to expectations this 5th spot can fall flat and it won't kill the bullpen or the team. Owings and Ramirez are both at an age to hit their stride and post some nice numbers. I would love to have Owings in the line up too. Hopefully the Reds finish the year WITHOUT Homer Bailey, and the 5th spot in the starting rotation has a record of 10-10 and has pitched 150+ innings.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Hairston Signs with the Reds
MLBTRADERUMORS.COM as well as Cincinnati.com are reporting that Jerry Hairston Jr. has signed a one year contract for 2 million, that could turn into 4 million depending on his performance. Hairston's versatility certainly helps the Reds. Especially if he stays healthy. He will likely start at Shortstop since Alex Gonzalez won't be ready to play this year.
It's likely that Pat Burrell signing for less than expected with Tampa Bay led Hairston to re-sign with the Reds. The free agent market, just isn't bringing big money contracts outside the Yankees this year. This move frees the Reds up to work on other possible deals. It gives the lineup added strength and versatility, and also adds depth to the bench (as either Keppinger, Encarnacion, or Hairston will be coming of the bench on any given day). Now all the Red's need to do is trade Homer Bailey for Xavier Nady. Walt... We're waiting...
It's likely that Pat Burrell signing for less than expected with Tampa Bay led Hairston to re-sign with the Reds. The free agent market, just isn't bringing big money contracts outside the Yankees this year. This move frees the Reds up to work on other possible deals. It gives the lineup added strength and versatility, and also adds depth to the bench (as either Keppinger, Encarnacion, or Hairston will be coming of the bench on any given day). Now all the Red's need to do is trade Homer Bailey for Xavier Nady. Walt... We're waiting...
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Maturity Takes a Knee
Last night's Fiesta Bowl was a great game. By far the best bowl game this year. Ohio State came out and played better than anybody thought they would. Texas played well too, but truly got out played by the Buckeyes. You could not have asked for more excitement in Arizona. Even though my team didn't win, I would take an action packed match like that anyday.
As a Buckeye fan I only had 2 issues with the way the game went. The first was Tressel's decision to run the ball up the gut on 3rd and 13 at Texas' 40-something yardline. I don't feel like that had any hope for converting a first down, and the momentum had been in our favor going into that play.
The other issue I had was actually connected to the Buckeyes putting points on the board. I think we scored too fast, and didn't have a good perspective on the way we wanted the game to play out. We were in easy field goal range with 2:00 left on the clock. We could have ran the clock down to around the 1:00 minute mark or less before either scoring a touchdown or a field goal. By scoring quick they put the ball back into the hands of arguable the nations best offense. Even if we only kicked a field goal, the Longhorns would have had to put together a drive and kick a field goal to win (something they hadn't done much of this year). Maybe this was the Buckeyes' game plan, and Boom Herron just broke free, but I think if they had done it, the outcome would have been different.
Either way, it was still a great game. Congrats to Colt McCoy on a great end to a great season. Ohio State Seniors went out with their heads up too. They played a great game, and just ran out of time. What a game.
As a Buckeye fan I only had 2 issues with the way the game went. The first was Tressel's decision to run the ball up the gut on 3rd and 13 at Texas' 40-something yardline. I don't feel like that had any hope for converting a first down, and the momentum had been in our favor going into that play.
The other issue I had was actually connected to the Buckeyes putting points on the board. I think we scored too fast, and didn't have a good perspective on the way we wanted the game to play out. We were in easy field goal range with 2:00 left on the clock. We could have ran the clock down to around the 1:00 minute mark or less before either scoring a touchdown or a field goal. By scoring quick they put the ball back into the hands of arguable the nations best offense. Even if we only kicked a field goal, the Longhorns would have had to put together a drive and kick a field goal to win (something they hadn't done much of this year). Maybe this was the Buckeyes' game plan, and Boom Herron just broke free, but I think if they had done it, the outcome would have been different.
Either way, it was still a great game. Congrats to Colt McCoy on a great end to a great season. Ohio State Seniors went out with their heads up too. They played a great game, and just ran out of time. What a game.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Big Ten Bowl Record 1-5
Everyone knows the Big Ten is down this year. Any year that has Rich Rodriguez riding the Wolverines down into the ground, is going to be a down year for the conference. Still, I don't think that many people thought that the Big Ten would be 1-5 in bowl games with only OSU in the Fiesta Bowl left. Who is to blame for the atrocious bowl showing this year? I don't think you can blame the teams. The people to blame are Ohio State football fans.
Let's take a walk down What Should Have Been Lane. The Buckeyes have the lowest ranking of any at large team in a BCS game this year (10). They wouldn't have had a chance to get in if the PAC-10 hadn't righted itself. OSU would have been headed to the Capital One Bowl, instead of the Fiesta Bowl. Texas Tech had a legitimate gripe for not getting a BCS game (ranked 7), but only 2 teams per conference can get a BCS Bid (Texas, Oklahoma). Boise State was also ahead of OSU, but their weak schedule and Utah's outstanding season kept them from getting a bid. So why did OSU get a BCS game? Their fans. Plan and simple, Ohio State travels well, and Arizona is their home away from home. No other fan base (from those left to pick from) would have traveled as well and brought as much revenue as Buckeye Fans. In a season of economic downturn, the Fiesta Bowl Committee went with the sure thing; Buckeye fans spend money. This is where the Big Ten's road to 1-5 in Bowl Games begins, not recruiting, coaching, or anywhere else.
Here are what the Bowl Projections would have been if Ohio State had played in the Capital One Bowl instead of the Fiesta Bowl:
Penn State vs USC
Ok this one wouldn't have changed at all Big Ten 0-1
Ohio State vs Georgia
Nothing against the Bulldogs, but the Buckeyes win this one easily Big Ten 1-1
Michigan State vs. South Carolina
MSU rolls the Gamecocks just like Iowa did. Big 10 2-1
Iowa vs. Missouri
This would be a good game, but Iowa's defense and run game prevails. Big Ten 3-1
Northwestern vs Kansas
Northwestern almost beat Missouri, so they would likely beat Kansas as well. Big Ten 4-1
Minnesota vs Florida State
Minnesota is just awful. Big 10 4-2
Wisconsin vs ???
Wisconsin shouldn't even be in a bowl this year. So whoever they played, they would likely lose. This team just lost its Spirit. Big Ten 4-2 or 4-3
So the Ohio State fans are playing a big part in the Big 10 getting no respect. It's not because of the things they are saying, it's because of the money they are willing to spend. 4 and 2 or 4 and 3 in bowl games for a conference isn't amazing, but it is respectable, and it would also put them around the same winning percentage this bowl season as the rest of the major conferences. If only bowl match-ups were decided by the teams on the field and not the fans in the stands
Let's take a walk down What Should Have Been Lane. The Buckeyes have the lowest ranking of any at large team in a BCS game this year (10). They wouldn't have had a chance to get in if the PAC-10 hadn't righted itself. OSU would have been headed to the Capital One Bowl, instead of the Fiesta Bowl. Texas Tech had a legitimate gripe for not getting a BCS game (ranked 7), but only 2 teams per conference can get a BCS Bid (Texas, Oklahoma). Boise State was also ahead of OSU, but their weak schedule and Utah's outstanding season kept them from getting a bid. So why did OSU get a BCS game? Their fans. Plan and simple, Ohio State travels well, and Arizona is their home away from home. No other fan base (from those left to pick from) would have traveled as well and brought as much revenue as Buckeye Fans. In a season of economic downturn, the Fiesta Bowl Committee went with the sure thing; Buckeye fans spend money. This is where the Big Ten's road to 1-5 in Bowl Games begins, not recruiting, coaching, or anywhere else.
Here are what the Bowl Projections would have been if Ohio State had played in the Capital One Bowl instead of the Fiesta Bowl:
Penn State vs USC
Ok this one wouldn't have changed at all Big Ten 0-1
Ohio State vs Georgia
Nothing against the Bulldogs, but the Buckeyes win this one easily Big Ten 1-1
Michigan State vs. South Carolina
MSU rolls the Gamecocks just like Iowa did. Big 10 2-1
Iowa vs. Missouri
This would be a good game, but Iowa's defense and run game prevails. Big Ten 3-1
Northwestern vs Kansas
Northwestern almost beat Missouri, so they would likely beat Kansas as well. Big Ten 4-1
Minnesota vs Florida State
Minnesota is just awful. Big 10 4-2
Wisconsin vs ???
Wisconsin shouldn't even be in a bowl this year. So whoever they played, they would likely lose. This team just lost its Spirit. Big Ten 4-2 or 4-3
So the Ohio State fans are playing a big part in the Big 10 getting no respect. It's not because of the things they are saying, it's because of the money they are willing to spend. 4 and 2 or 4 and 3 in bowl games for a conference isn't amazing, but it is respectable, and it would also put them around the same winning percentage this bowl season as the rest of the major conferences. If only bowl match-ups were decided by the teams on the field and not the fans in the stands
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